Eye On the Prize for Flanagan Heading Into Berlin Marathon

By Scott Bush

It’s finally here. While the Bank of American Chicago Marathon and TCS New York City Marathon get the vast majority of road racing attention over the next six weeks, American distance running fans have their eye on the capital of Germany, as Shalane Flanagan takes a shot at Deena Kastor’s American marathon record of 2:19:36 at the Berlin Marathon.

YES

When Shalane Flanagan goes for something, she lays it on the line and does all she can to achieve it. We saw that at the Boston Marathon this past spring, where she clearly made the race (the fastest in event history). While she paid the price in the late stages of the race, she still came through with a huge three and a half minute PR, a newfound confidence for the marathon and a belief that she can take down Kastor’s American record.

We’ve seen this before with Flanagan. Her Olympic bronze medal  and American record 10,000m performance in Beijing was truly special and we’ve seen it time and time again at U.S. Championship events. She’s focused, deciding to focus on marathon prep instead of the USA Outdoor Track and Field Championships and set up perfect pacers for her on Sunday, as Ryan Vail (USA) and Rob Watson (CAN) set the pace. Vail is a 2:10 marathoner and Watson is 2:13, so their controlled effort should bode well for Flanagan.

A controlled race setting with the pacers and the insanely fast course in Berlin take a lot of the difficulties an athlete might run into. Remember, Flanagan led much of her Boston race. She won’t have to do that work and Berlin is arguably faster than Boston (think no hills). While it’d be a surprise to see her drop another 2:27 off her personal best, it’s not an unreasonable expectation. The real question is…why can’t she do it?

NO

It takes a special day to set an American record, especially for an event that’s so incredibly grueling, both mentally and physically, like the marathon. Flanagan is the best U.S. long distance runner since Deena Kastor and she’s run faster than Kastor when it comes to the track, but 26.2 miles is another beast.

When Kastor set the American record of 2:19:36 back in 2006, she dropped her personal best 1:40, so a big drop at such a high level is certainly feasible, but Kastor also ran sub-2:22 twice before, running 2:21:16 and 2:21:25. She knew the burn and discomfort running at near 2:20 pace felt. Flanagan felt that to a degree in Boston, but maybe, just maybe, she needs more experience.

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Fans need to get excited for the Berlin Marathon Sunday. It’s not every day an American distance runner openly discusses going for a U.S. record. Flanagan has a real shot, has set up her race situation to fit her chase perfectly and seems more driven than ever before. Only time will tell, but at least it’s going to be one heck of a race to follow.